Brussels Sprouts

Did China and Russia just sabotage critical infrastructure in the Baltic?

During the past several weeks, a string of attacks on critical infrastructure in the Baltic Sea has highlighted the challenges NATO faces in protecting itself against hybrid threats. After the discovery of damage done to a gas pipeline between Finland and Estonia, news soon broke that a data cable connecting Estonia and Sweden had also been damaged. While investigations point to a Chinese commercial vessel as the most likely culprit, the difficulty of attributing the incident directly to Beijing illustrates a common problem in defending against grey zone aggression more broadly. On this episode of Brussels Sprouts, Bruce Jones and Elisabeth Braw join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of recent incidents and what they can tell us about future threats posed by hybrid warfare.
Bruce Jones is a Senior Fellow with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy, and Technology in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution.
Elisabeth Braw is a Senior Associate Fellow at the European Leadership Network and a columnist with Foreign Policy. Her work focuses on deterrence against emerging forms of aggression, such as hybrid and grey zone threats.

The State of European Aid to Ukraine with Justyna Gotkowska, Liana Fix, and Tara Varma

More than a year and a half after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, sustained Western support for Kyiv is as critical as ever. With the future trajectory of the war remaining highly uncertain, continued military aid from both the United States and Europe will be essential in enabling further Ukrainian successes on the battlefield. Yet commitment to such support is not guaranteed. In particular, recent global events have raised concerns about the degree to which European allies will continue to stand behind Kyiv. To discuss how we should be thinking about these various developments and their potential impact on the Russia-Ukraine war, Liana Fix, Tara Varma, and Justyna Gotkowska join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Liana Fix is a fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations. She is a historian and political scientist, with expertise in German and European foreign and security policy, European security, transatlantic relations, Russia, and Eastern Europe.
Tara Varma is a visiting fellow in the Center for the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. She focuses on current French defense and security proposals in the European framework, as well as ongoing efforts to materialize European sovereignty in health, economics, climate, energy, and more traditional security fields.
Justyna Gotkowska is the Deputy Director of the Centre for Eastern Studies based in Warsaw, Poland. Her work focuses on security and defense issues in Northern and Central Europe, including defense policies and armed forces’ developments in Germany as well as in the Nordic and Baltic states.

Europe, Russia, and the Conflict in Gaza

Two weekends ago, news broke that Hamas had infiltrated Israeli territory, killing hundreds of civilians while taking many others hostage. In the wake of these attacks, Western leaders offered their support to Israel, condemning the actions of the Palestinian militant organization. However, some in Europe question how far to go, taking issue with European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen’s unqualified commitment to “Israel’s right to defend itself.” As the crisis now verges toward possible escalation, Europe must grapple with not just the consequences for the region itself but the possible ripple effects on interests farther afield. In particular, Ukraine’s ongoing struggle is likely to be top of mind, with Moscow exploiting the current conflict. To discuss all of this and more, Julien Barnes-Dacey and Hanna Notte join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Julien Barnes-Dacey is the director of the Middle East & North Africa programme at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He works on European policy towards the wider region, with a particular focus on Syria and regional geopolitics.
Hanna Notte is the director of the Eurasia Nonproliferation Program at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies. Her work focuses on Russian foreign policy, including Russia’s relations with the “Global South” and the Middle East in particular.

The Uncertain Future of Western Support for Ukraine

Nearly 20 months after Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine, questions are beginning to mount about the future of Western aid to Kyiv. In addition to worrying signs of faltering support in Europe, perhaps the most concerning case is in the United States, where turmoil in Congress is stalling the approval of additional military assistance. Molly Reynolds and Max Bergmann join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss the implications of these recent political developments.
Molly Reynolds is a senior fellow in Governance Studies at the Brookings Institution. She studies the U.S. Congress, with an emphasis on how congressional rules and procedure affect domestic policy outcomes.
Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. From 2011 to 2017, he served in the U.S. Department of State in a number of different positions, including as a member of the secretary of state’s policy planning staff.

Analyzing the Polish Elections with R. Daniel Kelemen and Michal Baranowski

On October 15, all eyes will be on Poland as the country holds critical parliamentary elections. The months leading up to this event have seen a fiercely contested campaign, with an opposition bloc, led by the centrist Civic Coalition, attempting to prevent the ruling rightwing coalition, led by the Law and Justice party, from winning a third term in office. While the outcome of the race remains highly uncertain, its potential implications are profound, with some going so far as to claim that the future of Polish democracy itself is on the line. However, the implications of the election are also likely to extend beyond Poland, affecting political dynamics within the European Union and Poland’s broader role on the international stage. On this Episode of Brussels Sprouts Dan Kelemen and Michal Baranowski join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the high stakes of next week’s outcome in Poland.
R. Daniel Kelemen is the McCourt Chair at the McCourt School of Public Policy at Georgetown University. His research interests include the politics and law of the European Union, comparative politics and law, and comparative public policy.
Michal Baranowski is a managing director at the German Marshall Fund, where he provides overall strategic direction and leadership for the organization’s work in Poland, the Baltic states, and the Visegrad 4 countries

Brussels Sprouts Presents a Finnish Presidential Debate

Heading into the January 2024 Finnish presidential elections, the spotlight remains on foreign policy, an area where the Finnish head of state wields considerable influence. At the forefront of Finland’s foreign policy, however, is Russia and the nature of Helsinki’s future relationship with its neighbor. Following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022, Helsinki broke from its decades-long policy of formal military non-alignment by applying for and receiving membership in NATO. Outgoing president Niinistö had a crucial role in executing this monumental shift, helping set Finland down a new path, but considerable questions and issues remain. On this bonus episode of Brussels Sprouts, join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend as they moderate a debate between Finland’s leading presidential candidates, Dr. Mika Aaltola, Pekka Haavisto, and Alex Stubb, on the future of Finnish foreign policy.
Dr. Mika Aaltola is running as an independent candidate in the 2024 Finnish elections. He is currently on a leave of absence from his position as the Director of the Finish Institute of International Affairs (FIIA).
Pekka Haavisto is a member of the Green Party and the Finnish Parliament. He previously served as the Finnish Minister for Foreign Affairs from 2019 to 2023.
Alex Stubb is running as the National Coalition candidate in the 2024 Finnish Presidential Race. Prior to this, he served as Prime Minister, Finance Minister, Foreign Minister, and Trade and Europe Minister of Finland. Additionally, he was a member of the European Parliament from 2004 to 2008.

Understanding the Nagorno Karabakh Conflict with Thomas de Waal and Ambassador Phil Reeker

On September 19, Azerbaijani forces began attacking Nagorno Karabakh, the long-disputed Armenian enclave within Azerbaijan. Within 24 hours, Azerbaijan had established full control over the territory, triggering a mass exodus of Karabakh Armenians from their homeland amid fears of ethnic cleansing at the hands of the Azerbaijani military. This latest violence in the long-running conflict over Nagorno-Karabakh raises numerous questions. How will Russia’s role and influence in the region shift amidst warming tides between Armenia and the West, and what does Baku’s relationship with Turkey mean for the conflict’s trajectory? To discuss recent developments in the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Thomas de Waal and Ambassador Philip Reeker join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this Week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Ambassador Philip Reeker is a partner and the lead of the Europe and Eurasia Practice at the Albright Stonebridge Group. He has more than 30 years of diplomatic experience, including previous roles as Acting Assistant Secretary of State for Europe and Eurasia, and as the Secretary of State’s Senior Advisor for Caucasus Negotiations.
Thomas de Waal is a senior fellow with Carnegie Europe specializing in Eastern Europe and the Caucasus. He is the author of numerous publications about the region, including his authoritative book on the Nagorno-Karabakh Conflict, Black Garden: Armenia and Azerbaijan Through Peace and War

The New Authoritarian Axis: Russian Relations with North Korea and Iran

This past Wednesday, North Korean leader Kim Jong Un traveled to the Russian Far East for a summit with Vladimir Putin. After more than four hours of talks, Kim vowed to provide “full and unconditional support” to Russia, a clear indication of just how closely aligned Russian and North Korean interests have become. This deepening partnership between Russia and North Korea is part of a larger trend that has seen the emergence of a broad axis of authoritarian countries bound through opposition to the United States and its allies. To assess the significance of Russia’s increasingly close relationships with Pyongyang and Tehran for U.S. national security, Hanna Notte and Markus Garlauskas join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Hanna Notte is the Director for Eurasia at the James Martin Center for Nonproliferation Studies as well as a Senior Associate in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic & International Studies.
Markus Garlauskas is the director of the Indo-Pacific Security Initiative at the Atlantic Council’s Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security. He previously served in the US government for nearly twenty years, including as National Intelligence Officer for North Korea.

The Future of the Ukrainian Counter Offensive with Mike Kofman and Mark Hertling

Over the past several months, the world’s attention has been focused on the ongoing counteroffensive by the Ukrainian army. Many of Ukraine’s supporters had high hopes for this operation, with the United States and its European allies having provided unprecedented levels of military aid to Kyiv in preparation. Yet as the summer concludes without evidence of decisive territorial gains by Ukraine, perspectives on the conflict’s trajectory are becoming increasingly pessimistic. Nonetheless, some observers have pushed back against this narrative, noting Ukraine’s steady progress in the face of formidable challenges, and calling supporters to not give up hope. In this episode of Brussels Sprouts, hosts Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend are joined by Mike Kofman and Lieutenant General Mark Hertling to discuss the state of the Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.
Lt. Gen. Mark Hertling is a former United States Army officer who previously served as commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2011-2012.

A Post-Prigozhin Wagner Group with Kimberly Marten and Vanda Felbab-Brown

Last week, the world learned the shocking news that Yevgeny Prigozhin, the notorious head of Wagner private military company, died in a plane crash north of Moscow. Prigozhin’s demise came exactly two months after he launched a mutiny against Russian military leadership, which may be called the most significant and direct threat to Vladimir Putin’s regime since he came to power two decades ago. Now, it is far from certain whether Wagner can replicate its previous success without Prigozhin at the helm, and if not, whether other groups can effectively fill the vacuum. To discuss the post-Prigozhin future, Kim Marten and Vanda Felbab-Brown join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Kimberly Marten is a professor of political science at Barnard College, Columbia University. Her current research focuses on Russian foreign and security policies, NATO enlargement, and the global politics of climate change.
Vanda Felbab-Brown is a senior fellow in the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She is an expert on international and internal conflicts and nontraditional security threats, including insurgency, organized crime, urban violence, and illicit economies