Brussels Sprouts

The State of the War in Ukraine with Michael Kofman

As the war in Ukraine continues into its third year, the mood has become increasingly dark. While territorial changes continue to be minor, Russia’s slow but steady advances along the front lines could become large losses for Ukraine. This is especially likely if Kyiv is unable to overcome worsening shortages of both material and personnel. As military aid continues to be stalled in Congress, the head of U.S. European Command has warned that Ukraine may be in danger of losing the war unless it soon receives additional ammunition from Washington. Amidst all this apparent doom and gloom, how concerned should we be about the trajectory of the war, and what glimmers of hope may still lie on the horizon? To discuss all of this and more, Mike Kofman joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Mike Kofman is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace, where he focuses on the Russian military and Eurasian security issues.

Interpreting the Recent Turkish Elections with Asli Aydintaşbaş and Steven Cook

Just under a year ago, Turkish President Erdogan won another five years in power in the Turkish presidential election. Last week, however, local election results in Turkey delivered a harsh blow to the ruling Justice and Development Party (AKP). Although the gap at the national level wasn’t huge, the opposition Republican People’s Party (CHP) won about 38 percent of the vote and Erdogan’s AKP garnered approximately 35 percent, in major Turkish cities such as Istanbul and Ankara the gulf was significant. Following disappointing results for the CHP during last year’s general election, this significant defeat, the largest since the AKP's founding in 2001, proved a surprise. To discuss how we should interpret these election results and their implications for Turkish democracy, Asli Aydintaşbaş and Steven Cook join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Steven A. Cook is the Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars at the Council on Foreign Relations. He is the author of numerous books, including his most recent work, The End of Ambition: America’s Past, Present, and Future in the Middle East, which is set to be released on June 3, 2024. 
Asli Aydintaşbaş is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at Brookings, as well as a former Global Opinions columnist at The Washington Post and a senior policy fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations (ECFR).

Macron’s Change in Tune and the War in Ukraine

Since the Russian invasion of Ukraine in February 2022, there has been a notable evolution in France’s approach toward Moscow. In the initial months following the invasion, French President Emmanuel Macron continued to engage diplomatically with Vladimir Putin, controversially insisting that the West must not humiliate Moscow, prompting harsh criticism from France’s NATO allies. After apologizing last year for France’s previous failure to listen to the warning of its Central and Eastern European allies about Russian intentions, however, the French President notably pushed last month for greater Western strategic ambiguity regarding the war, stating that he had not ruled out the possibility of sending French troops to Ukraine. This once again prompted an outcry from NATO allies wary of escalation, such as Germany and the United States. To discuss how to interpret this apparent shift in French thinking and its possible implications going forward, Tara Varma and Bruno Tertrais join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts.  
Tara Varma is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.  
Bruno Tertrais is the Deputy Director of the Foundation for Strategic Research, a leading French think-tank on international security issues.  

Putin’s Fifth Term and Russian Domestic Politics

This past weekend, Russians went to the polls for the country’s presidential election. To the surprise of no one, Vladimir Putin emerged victorious with a record-high 87 percent of the vote—or so the Kremlin claims. In the wake of the death of Alexey Navalny and Putin’s bans on attempts of alternative candidates, such as Boris Nadezhdin, to compete in the elections, political opposition was limited to an informal agreement among thousands of voters to go to the polls at noon to express their discontent. Yet regardless of the fraudulent nature of the election, Putin is likely to take this result as evidence of a popular mandate to continue his policies of aggression abroad and repression at home. As we look ahead to Putin’s fifth term in office, how should we expect Russian domestic politics and foreign policy to evolve in the years to come? To discuss all this and more, Angela Stent and Joshua Yaffa join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Angela Stent is senior adviser to the Center for Eurasian, Russian, and East European Studies and professor emerita of government and foreign service at Georgetown University. She is also a nonresident senior fellow at the Brookings Institution and co-chairs its Hewett Forum on Post- Soviet Affairs. Stent is additionally the author of Putin’s World: Russia Against the West and With the Rest (2019).
Joshua Yaffa is a contributing writer for The New Yorker. He is also the author of Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin’s Russia, published in January 2020 by Tim Duggan Books, which won the Orwell Prize in 2021.

Franco-German Tensions and the War in Ukraine

Last week, French President Emmanuel Macon made waves when he said that he had not ruled out sending ground troops to fight in Ukraine. This statement prompted a strong reaction from Russian President Vladimir Putin, and for many of France’s NATO allies to distance themselves from Macron’s statement and potential escalation. One of the most notable instances of this came from German Chancellor Olaf Scholz, who asserted that soldiers from NATO countries should not “actively participate in war events.” This latest Franco-German spat fits within a larger trend of disagreements between Paris and Berlin and comes at a time when unified European leadership is desperately needed to aid Kyiv. To discuss the implications of these recent events for the future of Western support to Ukraine, Camille Grand and Claudia Major join Andrea Kendall- Taylor and Jim Townsend on Brussels Sprouts.
Camille Grand is a Distinguished Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. He leads the organization’s work on defense and disruptive technologies in European security.
Claudia Major is head of the International Security Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin. Her research focuses on European and transatlantic security and defense policy.

German Politics and the Alternative for Germany (AfD) Party

Throughout January, Germany witnessed weeks of mass protests against the far-right in numerous towns and cities across the country. The immediate impetus for these demonstrations was the revelation that leaders of the Alternative for Germany party, or AfD, had met with neo-Nazis to discuss potential large-scale deportations of certain segments of the country’s population. While the scale of participation in these protests demonstrates backlash among many Germans against the far-right’s xenophobic ideology, the AfD nonetheless retains significant popularity, particularly in eastern Germany. As the country looks ahead to various regional elections this fall that could see the AfD come to power, as well as to national elections in 2025, how significant of a threat does the far-right represent? To discuss the implications of the increasing mainstreaming of the far-right both in Germany and in Europe more broadly, Liana Fix and Erika Solomon join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this week’s episode of Brussels Sprouts.
Liana Fix is a Fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.
Erika Solomon is the Berlin correspondent for the New York Times.

Discussing Two Years of War in Ukraine with Marie Yovanovitch and William Taylor

February 24 marks the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine. Heading into the third year of war, Ukraine faces a challenging outlook. No longer are U.S. and European leaders talking about Russia’s strategic failure in its invasion. Indeed, the Kremlin appears confident that things are heading in Russia’s direction after Ukraine’s 2023 offensive and signs of U.S. reticence to sustain military support to the Ukrainian effort.  Anxiety over this outlook was running high at the Munich security conference, where allies grappled with the reality of a rising threat from Russia underscored by the killing of Alexei Navalny, the disclosure of Russian plans to put a nuclear weapon in space, and the transatlantic community’s lack of preparedness to address Russia’s rising challenge. To discuss where Ukraine stands two years after Russia’s brutal invasion, two former U.S. ambassadors to Ukraine, Bill Taylor and Marie Yovanovitch, join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on this episode of Brussels Sprouts.
William Taylor is the vice president for Europe and Russia at the U.S. Institute of Peace. Prior to this, he served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009, and as the chargé d'affaires at the U.S. embassy in Kyiv in 2019.
Marie Yovanovitch is a senior fellow in the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and a nonresident fellow at the Institute for the Study of Diplomacy of Georgetown University. She served as the U.S. ambassador to Ukraine from 2016 to 2019, having previously held this post in the Republic of Armenia and the Kyrgyz Republic

Hal Brands on the Looming Threat of Global Conflict

During the past two years, the world has seen the eruption of two major conflicts in two different regions. In Europe, Russia has launched a war of aggression against Ukraine in an attempt to reclaim a sphere of influence, while in the Middle East, Iran’s longstanding policy of enabling proxies including Hamas has resulted in a major war in Gaza and widespread violence throughout the region. In the meantime, tensions continue to simmer in East Asia, where China’s ambitions of primacy have stoked fears of a potential future conflict over Taiwan. While these three regional competitions may seem separate, they are in reality becoming increasingly interconnected as ties among Eurasia’s revisionist powers become stronger—a dynamic similar to that observed in the prelude to World War II. What lessons should we draw from the past as we attempt to make sense of today’s global turmoil and its implications for the future? Hal Brands joins the podcast to discuss all of this and more.
Hal Brands is the Henry A. Kissinger Distinguished Professor of Global Affairs at the Johns Hopkins School of Advanced International Studies and a Senior Fellow at the American Enterprise Institute.

Russia's Election and Putin's Power

In March of 2024, Russia will hold a presidential election. While Vladimir Putin is nearly certain to win another term in office given the Kremlin’s efforts to control the outcome and repress the opposition, it is far from certain how domestic dynamics in the country more broadly will play out in the months and years to come. As we approach the two-year anniversary of the full-scale invasion of Ukraine, how is the Russian public viewing the war, how is Putin exploiting the conflict domestically, and what might be the potential risks to regime stability going forward? Graeme Robertson and Sam Greene joined the podcast to discuss all of this and more.
Graeme Robertson is a Professor of Political Science at the University of North Carolina at Chapel Hill and Director of the Center for Slavic, Eurasian, and East European Studies.
Sam Greene is the Director for Democratic Resilience at the Center for European Policy Analysis and a Professor of Russian Politics at King's College London. 

Russia, Putin, and Ukraine in 2024 with Fiona Hill

This week’s Brussels Sprouts discusses expectations for Russia in the pivotal year ahead. As we approach the second anniversary of Russia’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine this February, how is the Kremlin viewing prospects for success going forward and the West’s capacity to sustain its support? Moreover, what is the potential impact of further instability in the Middle East, and how will Russia cultivate its relationships with China, Iran, and North Korea in 2024? With the upcoming elections in both Russia and the U.S., moreover, there is also much to consider regarding Putin’s domestic hold on power and the implications of American results for Russia. To address all of this and more, we’re pleased to have Fiona Hill with us on the podcast.
Fiona Hill is a senior fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe within the Foreign Policy program at the Brookings Institution. She also holds the position of chancellor at Durham University in the United Kingdom and was recently elected to the Harvard University Board of Overseers.