Brussels Sprouts

Europe Stepping Up and the United States Stepping Back

This week, the Allies met for the NATO summit in Ankara, Türkiye, in what was billed as a summit of low expectations. President Donald Trump once again created headlines with public comments about Greenland and criticism of European allies for failing to support the United States during the Iran conflict—but by most accounts, the conversations behind closed doors were far more constructive, and the summit avoided the kind of transatlantic rupture that many feared. Outcomes were positive for Ukraine as the European allies and Canada made clear that they are now the backbone of support. Trump also told President Volodymyr Zelenskyy that the United States will license the production of Patriot missile interceptors in Ukraine.Overall, the biggest takeaway then wasn't politics at all, but procurement. Through the NATO Defense Industry Forum, the Allies announced more than $50 billion in new procurement and industrial agreements, signaling that NATO is moving beyond talking about defense spending to actually building the industrial capacity needed to sustain deterrence.Taken together, these developments raise a broader question about the future of the alliance. In many ways, the summit offers a glimpse of what some analysts are calling NATO 3.0, a model in which Europe assumes much greater responsibility for its own defense, while the United States remains the alliance’s strategic backstop. If that is indeed where NATO is headed, are we seeing the emergence of a more sustainable transatlantic bargain? Or are we creating new risks for deterrence and alliance cohesion?To answer these questions and more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Ian Brzezinski and Torrey Taussig to this week’s edition of the show.Ian Brzezinski is a resident senior fellow with the Scowcroft Center for Strategy and Security at the Atlantic Council and former deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO policy.Torrey Taussig is the director of and a senior fellow with the Transatlantic Security Initiative at the Scowcroft Center and a former director for European affairs on the National Security Council. 

Prospects for Ukraine and a Look Ahead to Ankara

The past month has featured a series of major transatlantic gatherings that together tell an important story about where the alliance is headed. At the NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Sweden, allies focused on strengthening Europe's role within NATO through higher defense spending, expanded defense industrial production, and continued support for Ukraine. But the meeting also underscored growing uncertainty about America’s long-term role in European security following the announcement of a U.S. review of its military posture in Europe, a move that reinforced allies’ concerns that the future of the U.S. military presence on the continent will shrink. 
The G7 summit in France offered a more optimistic note. Leaders pledged additional military support for Ukraine, including air defense and long-range capabilities. And many came away encouraged that President Trump appeared to be taking a tougher line toward Vladimir Putin. But we've seen this movie before. Trump has repeatedly shifted between promises of greater pressure on Russia and renewed optimism about engaging Putin, making it far too early to conclude that a lasting change in U.S. policy is underway. 
That brings us to the NATO summit in Ankara on July 7th and 8th, where those competing trends will be put to the test. Expectations are pretty modest. Allies will be looking for reassurances about America’s long-term commitment to Europe, greater clarity on the U.S. posture review, and evidence that recent optimism on Ukraine is warranted. At the same time, leaders will be trying to maintain alliance unity while advancing Europe’s growing role in its own defense.  
To connect all these dots and look forward, we're very happy to have Benedetta Berti and Kurt Volker back on Brussels Sprouts. 
Benedetta Berti is the Secretary General of the NATO Parliamentary Assembly. 
Ambassador Kurt Volker is the Advisory Board Co-Chair for BGR Group and former U.S. Ambassador to NATO and U.S. Special Representative for Ukraine Negotiations. 

Getting the Brits Ready to Fight

On June 22, United Kingdom (UK) prime minister Keir Starmer announced that he would resign as leader of the Labour Party and leave the premiership. Starmer had faced mounting pressure to hand the position over to a new leader after local elections in May that were disastrous for the party, but the decision came after Labour’s Andy Burnham, popular mayor of Greater Manchester, won a special election for a seat in parliament and signaled on June 19 that he would use it to challenge Starmer for leadership of the country.All of this comes after both the UK’s defence minister, John Healey, and armed forces minister, Al Carns, announced on June 11 that they had resigned from their positions. Both former ministers cited funding for the military as the reason for their departures. Healey issued a letter warning that the level of military spending proposed by Starmer “falls well short” of what is needed. Carns stated that the government’s defense investment plan was “neither transformative enough nor sufficiently funded.” The plan, which lays out the funding for military equipment and services, has faced months of delays amid budget disputes within the government. Earlier this month, Chief of the Defence Staff Richard Knighton also said that the UK is running out of time to boost defenses in response to Russian threats, and that risks to the country are greater than at any time since the Cold War.The UK’s struggles highlight two questions that Europe has yet to answer:  Can governments generate the political support needed for significantly higher defense spending? And with the United States playing a smaller role, who will provide the leadership needed to organize and drive Europe’s security efforts?To discuss all of this and more, we are excited to welcome back to Brussels Sprouts Shashank Joshi and Tom Wright.
Please note that this episode was recorded on Friday, June 19, before Starmer’s official resignation but when it was clear that he would be challenged. Shashank Joshi is the incoming Washington bureau chief at The Economist and was previously the publication’s defense editor. Tom Wright is a senior fellow with the Strobe Talbott Center for Security, Strategy and Technology at the Brookings Institution. 

Brussels Sprouts Live: Four Ambassadors Reimagine the Transatlantic Relationship

Today's episode comes from the CNAS Annual Conference held last week in Washington, D.C. The theme of this year's conference was “New Rules,” and nowhere is that more evident than in the transatlantic relationship. As Europe takes on greater responsibility for its own security and Washington reassesses its role on the continent, both sides are grappling with fundamental questions. What should the next chapter of the transatlantic partnership look like? What principles, expectations, and responsibilities will define the relationship going forward? Those questions were at the heart of a conversation Andrea Kendall-Taylor moderated on reimagining the transatlantic relationship.
Joining her were four distinguished ambassadors:
Ambassador Laurent Bili of France, the European Union’s Ambassador Jovita Neliupšienė, Denmark's Ambassador Jesper Møller Sørensen, and Swedish Ambassador Urban Ahlin.
We hope you enjoy the discussion.
This episode was recorded on June 11th, 2026.

U.S. Posture Changes and the Future of European Defense Planning

Over the last several weeks, European allies have been trying to interpret a steady stream of signals from Washington about the future of the U.S. military role in Europe, discussions we've covered on the last two episodes of Brussels Sprouts. Beyond the headlines about troop levels, the broader concern is that the United States may be preparing to scale back some of the critical capabilities that have long formed the backbone of NATO’s deterrence posture, including the forces and enablers needed to rapidly reinforce Europe in a crisis. The uncertainty has exposed deeper questions about how decisions on U.S. force posture are made, how allies should prepare for a potentially smaller American role, and whether Europe is moving fast enough to adapt to a more demanding security environment. These debates are particularly acute in Germany, where questions about deterrence, defense spending, and Europe’s long-term security architecture are increasingly central to the political conversation.To help us dig into these issues and what they all mean for the future of transatlantic security, we’re very happy to welcome Mara Karlin and Liana Fix to this week’s edition of Brussels Sprouts.Liana Fix is a senior fellow for Europe at the Council on Foreign Relations.Mara Karlin is a visiting fellow at the Brookings Institution and a professor of practice at Johns Hopkins University’s School of Advanced International Studies. 

Window of Opportunity? Deterrence and Moscow’s Calculus

In the last episode of Brussels Sprouts, we looked at the dizzying series of U.S. announcements about America’s military posture in Europe. Since then, new reporting has emerged. The Wall Street Journal reports that the Pentagon is preparing allies for a much larger reduction in the U.S. forces earmarked to reinforce Europe in a crisis—including reductions in bombers, naval assets, and refueling tinkers. In other words, this is not just about troop numbers on the continent today. It’s about whether the United States will still provide the critical enablers that have long underpinned NATO’s ability to deter and, if necessary, fight a major war in Europe. Moscow is watching all of this closely, and the timing matters. As Washington signals that it intends to do less, Russia is increasing pressure on NATO’s eastern flank.  
In recent weeks, Moscow has threatened Latvia over false claims that it is allowing Ukraine to use its territory or airspace to launch drone attacks against Russia. Baltic officials have rejected those claims, but the pattern is familiar: Manufacture a grievance, amplify it, and use it to build the foundation to justify future aggression. At the same time, Russia is facing growing domestic strain, which we’ve talked about here on Brussels Sprouts as well, raising questions about whether Putin needs a permanent state of confrontation with the West to sustain his hold on power. So, with all of this, today we are asking a central question: Does Russia see opportunity in this moment, one in which the United States may be pulling back faster than Europe can fill the gap? 
To help us understand the view from Moscow, we’re very pleased to welcome back to Brussels Sprouts a series of former intelligence officials: Nate Reynolds, Pete Schroeder, and Jeff Edmonds. 
Peter Schroeder is an expert on Russian foreign and security policy with nearly two decades of experience working on Russia and Eurasia in various roles in the intelligence community. He is an adjunct fellow with the Center for a New American Security (CNAS). 
Nate Reynolds is a senior fellow with the Russia and Eurasia Program at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace and also a longtime intelligence official.
Jeff Edmonds is the president of True North Policy, an adjunct fellow with CNAS, and also a very longtime intelligence veteran. 

U.S. Military Posture and Implications for European Security

Over the last several weeks, U.S. allies have been trying to make sense of a dizzying series of announcements about America’s military posture and broader role in Europe. First came reports that the Trump administration planned to withdraw roughly 5,000 troops from Germany following a public dispute with Chancellor Friedrich Merz over the war with Iran. Shortly thereafter, the Pentagon paused the deployment of thousands of U.S. troops to Poland—a move that blindsided officials in Warsaw, particularly because Poland has consistently positioned itself as a model ally. Then, in another abrupt reversal, President Donald Trump announced that the United States would instead send an additional 5,000 troops to Poland, though it remains unclear whether these are new forces, previously paused deployments, or units being shifted from elsewhere in Europe.These announcements hung heavy over last week’s NATO Foreign Ministers meeting in Sweden, where Secretary of State Marco Rubio signaled that Washington would step back from playing the leading role in negotiations between Russia and Ukraine after months of stalled diplomacy. Rubio also emphasized that European allies would need to shoulder more of the burden for their own defense, reinforcing the sense that the United States is narrowing the scope of its role in European security.At a moment when Russia continues to pressure NATO’s eastern flank, the debate is no longer whether the United States will reduce its role in Europe but how fast, how coherently, and with what consequences for deterrence and alliance cohesion.To help us unpack all of this, Douglas Lute and Justyna Gotkowska join Brussels Sprouts this week to discuss.
Justyna Gotkowska is deputy director and head of the Security and Defence Department at the Centre for Eastern Studies (OSW) in Warsaw.
Ambassador Douglas Lute is chair of BGR Group’s International and Trade Practice and its Defense and Critical Technologies Practice. He is a retired U.S. Army lieutenant general and formerly served as the U.S. permanent representative to NATO. 

A State of “Unorder?”

As conversations about the status of the liberal world order swirl in capitals on both sides of the Atlantic, many are realizing that old ways of thinking about the rules-based order, power, and international cooperation may no longer hold. Mark Leonard’s new book, Surviving Chaos: Geopolitics When the Rules Fail, argues that we need a fundamentally different way of thinking about the future. The current moment may not be a world between orders, but a new state of durable “unorder,” defined by four big structural forces—climate, chips, capital, and civilizations—along with the biggest source of the chaos behind them: China. Chaos has become the system, Leonard argues, and rather than looking for order, Europeans should figure out how to have agency.
Surviving Chaos is especially relevant given the U.S. war with Iran, demonstrating how today’s crises overlap and reinforce one another. Energy shortfalls, food insecurity, nuclear proliferation, and global economic shocks all occur simultaneously. Do today’s crises signal a deeper shift toward unorder? Are shared rules and assumptions still relevant? And what does this mean for Europe and how can it adapt?To discuss these questions and much more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome Mark Leonard to this week’s edition of the podcast.Mark Leonard is cofounder and director of the European Council on Foreign Relations. 

Rising Domestic Pressure in Russia?

Over the last several weeks, strain within Russia's domestic political system has become increasingly apparent. The Kremlin has intensified digital controls, intermittently disrupting mobile internet access and placing growing pressure on foreign platforms, including the widely used Telegram messaging service. Authorities have also expanded efforts to restrict VPN use. While the government frames these measures as necessary to guard against Ukrainian drone attacks, public frustration appears to be mounting. Russians have attempted to hold protests and are voicing complaints on social media, with one video expressing grievances by an influencer and former reality TV star going viral.Discontent is also surfacing among segments of the elite. Politicians in the “systemic opposition,” along with some members of United Russia, have publicly questioned aspects of the tightening restrictions. Business leaders and economic officials concerned about mounting costs and disruptions have signaled unease. At the same time, structural pressures in the economy are becoming more pronounced. Despite benefiting from elevated energy revenues, Russia faces persistent inflation, fiscal strain, and an acute labor shortage. Putin’s central banker was just out declaring an unprecedented labor shortage driven by an exodus of 1.5 million people and about 1.3 million casualties in the war.
Individually, neither tightening information controls nor economic strain is likely to drive political change. But taken together, do these pressures point to something more consequential? And what do they mean for Russia's future?To answer these questions and more, Brussels Sprouts welcomes Alexander Gabuev and Joshua Yaffa to the show.Alexander Gabuev is the director of the Carnegie Russia Eurasia Center.Joshua Yaffa is a contributing writer at The New Yorker and the author of Between Two Fires: Truth, Ambition, and Compromise in Putin’s Russia, which won the Orwell Prize in 2021. 

Transatlantic Adaptation: A More European NATO?

Doubts about U.S. reliability and the future of NATO are top of mind for most in the transatlantic community. The concerns that spiked after President Donald Trump’s threats to seize Greenland have gained new urgency amid the standoff over Europe’s position on America’s war in Iran. The tensions in U.S. relations with Europe were on full display earlier this month during President Trump’s meeting with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte in Washington and afterward when Trump berated NATO allies online, calling the alliance a paper tiger.  
In the context of these criticisms and threats, European officials are reportedly working on fallback plans to ensure Europe can maintain deterrence against Russia, preserve command and control, and replace military assets if the United States departs the alliance. All of this raises fundamental questions about the future of the NATO alliance. How can Europe maintain credible deterrence with less U.S. involvement? And what is the latest thinking on how the alliance needs to adapt? 
To tackle these questions and more, Brussels Sprouts is excited to welcome back Ivo Daalder and Camille Grand to this week’s edition of the podcast. 
Ivo Daalder is a former U.S. ambassador to NATO and previously served as president and chief executive officer of the Chicago Council on Global Affairs.
Camille Grand is secretary general of the Aerospace, Security, and Defence Industries Association of Europe and previously served as assistant secretary general for defense investment at NATO.