Brussels Sprouts

War in Ukraine: What Next?

Russia’s swift and unprovoked invasion of the country this past week has been met with insane condemnations from leaders across the globe, including in the United States and Europe. As Russian soldiers engage in a full air and land operation on a massive scale, questions remain about how their military campaign might unfold as well as what the geopolitical implications might be for surrounding countries and the NATO alliance. On February 25, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis.
Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on US national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, covering Eurasian militaries.
Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses’ Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on the Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.

Flash Release: Rob Lee Reacts to Ongoing Russian Military Developments

Earlier this week, Russia escalated its ongoing aggression toward Ukraine by announcing that it would formally recognize the independence of the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, a decision that the Kremlin has backed up by deploying troops to both Eastern Ukrainian regions. In preparation for the possibility of a wider conflict, more serious sanctions have been threatened and additional troops have been moved to NATO’s eastern flank. Yet it remains unclear what Vladimir Putin’s next move will be—while many believe that he is poised to go further and launch a massive military attack against Ukraine, some have argued that he may stop short of a full-blown war. Rob Lee joins Andrea Kendall Taylor and Jim Townsend to assess the events and implications of this major global crisis.
Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, as well as a PhD student researching Russian defense policy at King’s College London’s War Studies Department. He is a former Marine infantry officer, Alfa Fellow, and visiting fellow at the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), a Russian think tank focused on defense policy.

Flash Release: Samuel Charap Reacts to Continued Russian Aggression

Over the last 24-48 hours, there has been a dizzying number of new developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine and Russia, all of which are deeply concerning. This morning, the Kremlin formally accused the United States of ignoring the package nature of its proposal for security guarantees. This comes amid signs that Russia is creating pretexts for conflict, including spreading false claims of genocide in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as shelling a Ukrainian village in the Donbas in an apparent attempt to bait Ukrainian forces into responded. Finally, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to soon address the entire Russian Federal Assembly, am ominous sign that a major action could be on the horizon. To make sense of this, Samuel Charap joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss these recent, concerning developments.
Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states, as well as on European and Eurasian regional security. He has written widely on Ukraine, including his 2017 book titled Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.

Virtual Fireside Chat with Estonian Foreign Minister, Eva-Maria Liimets

Over the past week, the situation in Ukraine has seemed to have approached a critical juncture. U.S. intelligence has warned of an imminent Russian invasion that could begin any day now; yet at the same time, Moscow has insisted that it does not seek a military conflict and declared its continued openness to a diplomatic solution. Given Estonia’s status as a crucial NATO ally during this conflict, Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the current conflict.
Eva-Maria Liimets is the current Foreign Minister of Estonia. She previously served as the Estonian Ambassador to the Czech Republic as well as in numerous other posts throughout her long career as a foreign service professional.

Flash Release: Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds React to Threat of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Last Friday, the U.S. intelligence community revealed that it has reason to believe that Russian military action against Ukraine is imminent, with an invasion possibly occurring as soon as this week. Over the past few days, the Biden administration has begun evacuating the U.S. embassy in Kiev, instructed American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, and reiterated its intention to forge a massive transatlantic response to any violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development.
Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.
Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

Flash Release: Alex Gabuev and Dave Shullman React to Russia-China Meeting

As the 2022 winter Olympics kicked off last Friday in Beijing, a high-profile meeting took place on the sidelines between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Following their meeting, Putin and Xi released a joint statement emphasizing their shared grievances with respect to the U.S.-led world order, condemning NATO enlargement as well as alleged attempts by outside forces to interfere in their internal affairs. Despite this show of solidarity, however, tensions remain in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. Alexander Gabuev and David Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development.
Alexander Gabuev is a senior fellow and the Chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. His research is focused on Russia’s policy toward East and Southeast Asia, political and ideological trends in China, and China’s relations with its neighbors.
David Shullman is Senior Director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council’s work on China. David’s research focuses on China’s foreign policy and grand strategy, U.S.-China relations, China-Russia relations, and the implications of China’s rise for global order and the future of democracy.

Flash Release: Christoph Heusgen Reacts to Evolving Ukraine Crisis

Vladimir Putin recently spoke about Ukraine for the first time since December—a speech in which he conveyed mixed messages about his intentions. On the one hand, he noted that he hoped to find a solution to the crisis, noting the extensive diplomacy that has been taking place. On the other hand, he emphasized that Russia’s security concerns have not been seriously addressed by the United States and Europe, underscoring the difficulty of coming to an agreement. Meanwhile, facts on the ground continue to suggest that conflict remains more likely than not, as Russian forces continue to increase—including, more units, logistics, and enablers such as blood supplies. Germany’s former UN Ambassador, Christoph Heusgen, joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the rapidly evolving situation.
Christoph Heusgen is the former Ambassador of Germany to the United Nations, a role which he held from 2017 to 2021. He previously served as a top security and foreign affairs advisor to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, and later this year he will take over as Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

Flash Release: Ben Hodges Reacts to U.S.-NATO Response

The United States and its NATO allies have begun pursuing other courses of action to the Russia-Ukraine crisis besides diplomacy, including decisions to put military forces on standby and to send ships and fighter jets to reinforce Eastern Europe. Amid this flurry of activity, there has been a lack of clarity about the intentions behind these moves, lending support to the false Kremlin narrative that NATO forces are converging on Russia and pose a threat to the country’s security interests. Ben Hodges joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what the U.S.-NATO response to Ukraine really means, along with discussing the potential trajectory of future events.
Lieutenant General (ret.)Ben Hodges holds the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He previously served in the U.S. Army for 38 years, completing his last assignment as commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2014-2017 in Wiesbaden, Germany.

Flash Release: Constanze Stelzenmüller and Jana Puglierin React to Germany’s Approach to Ukraine

The strength of Germany’s support for Ukraine and the overall cohesion of NATO has come under question after Germany blocked Estonia from sending German-made howitzer artillery to Ukraine. In continuation of our series of rapid reactions to this constantly developing crisis between Russia and Ukraine, Constanze Stelzenmüller and Jana Puglierin join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how events are likely to unfold in the upcoming weeks.
Constanze Stelzenmüller is an expert on German, European, and transatlantic foreign and security policy, and strategy. She is the inaugural holder of the Fritz Stern Chair on Germany and Transatlantic Relations in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution.
Jana Puglierin is the head of the Berlin office and a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. She directs ECFR’s Re:shape Global Europe project and has also advised the German Bundestag as an expert on arms control and non-proliferation.

France’s Monumental Months Ahead with Célia Belin and Tara Varma

France has entered a pivotal period that will determine its future political trajectory as it begins its six-month rotating presidency of the Council of the European Union while also being a few months out from the country’s presidential election in April. What can we expect in the upcoming months? Célia Belin and Tara Varma join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the numerous opportunities and obstacles that the convergence of these two events poses for the future of France.
Célia Belin is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Her areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, and French politics and foreign policy.
Tara Varma is a senior policy fellow and head of the Paris office of the European Council on Foreign Relations, where she follows French foreign policy and European security developments.