Brussels Sprouts

Sanctions and Export Controls Explained: What’s going on with Russia

The United States and its allies have released an unprecedented and sweeping set of sanctions and export controls in response to Russia's invasion of Ukraine. This includes blocking sanctions on most major Russian banks, asset freezes on Russian elites, and a broad set of restrictions on exports of technology to Russia. Over the weekend, we saw the announcement of sanctions on Russia's central bank, along with removing select Russian banks from the SWIFT system and sanctions on Putin himself. On March 2, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel moderated by Richard Fontaine and featuring Edward Fishman, Tom Keatinge, Emily Kilcrease, and Elina Ribakova to discuss what these new sanctions and export controls mean, how they will impact the Russian and global economies, and what to expect next in the economic domain from the United States and allies.
Edward Fishman is an Adjunct Fellow at the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Tom Keatinge is the Director of the Centre for Financial Crime and Security Studies at the Royal United Services Institute.
Emily Kilcrease is a Senior Fellow and Program Director of the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security.
Elina Ribakova is an Adjunct Senior Fellow at the Energy, Economics, and Security Program at the Center for a New American Security, and she is the Deputy Chief Economist at the Institute of International Finance.

Flash Release: Claudia Major and Daniela Schwarzer React to Germany’s Shifts on Defense Policy

In response to the escalating crisis in Ukraine, Germany recently announced several historic policy shifts over the past few days. German Chancellor Olaf Scholz indicated that Germany would deliver weapons to Ukraine, reversing Germany’s long-held refusal to deliver weapons to a conflict zone. Furthermore, Scholz announced that Germany would plan to spend more than 2% of GDP on defense spending year on year and would create a €100 billion investment fund for the armed forces. Claudia Major and Daniela Schwarzer join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to assess this monumental shift in German foreign policy.
Dr. Claudia Major is head of the International Security Division at the German Institute for International and Security Affairs in Berlin (SWP). Her research, advisory work and publications focus on security and defense policy in Europe and in a transatlantic context, including NATO, EU, Germany, UK, and France. Previously, Claudia held positions at the Center for Security Studies at ETH Zurich, the German Council on Foreign Relations (Berlin), the EU Institute for Security Studies (Paris), the German Foreign Office (NATO desk) and Sciences Po Paris. Claudia is member in various boards, such as the Advisory Board for Civilian Crisis Prevention at the Federal Foreign Office and the German-British Koenigswinter Conference.
Dr. Daniela Schwarzer is executive director for Europe and Eurasia of the Open Society Foundations. Schwarzer is a renowned expert in European affairs and transatlantic and international relations. She is an honorary professor of political science at Freie Universität Berlin and a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School’s Belfer Center. She has been a special advisor to European leaders such as EU High Representative Josep Borrell and to countries including Poland and France during the preparation of their EU Council presidencies.

War in Ukraine: What Next?

Russia’s swift and unprovoked invasion of the country this past week has been met with insane condemnations from leaders across the globe, including in the United States and Europe. As Russian soldiers engage in a full air and land operation on a massive scale, questions remain about how their military campaign might unfold as well as what the geopolitical implications might be for surrounding countries and the NATO alliance. On February 25, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis.
Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on US national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, covering Eurasian militaries.
Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses’ Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on the Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.

Flash Release: Rob Lee Reacts to Ongoing Russian Military Developments

Earlier this week, Russia escalated its ongoing aggression toward Ukraine by announcing that it would formally recognize the independence of the separatist territories of Donetsk and Luhansk, a decision that the Kremlin has backed up by deploying troops to both Eastern Ukrainian regions. In preparation for the possibility of a wider conflict, more serious sanctions have been threatened and additional troops have been moved to NATO’s eastern flank. Yet it remains unclear what Vladimir Putin’s next move will be—while many believe that he is poised to go further and launch a massive military attack against Ukraine, some have argued that he may stop short of a full-blown war. Rob Lee joins Andrea Kendall Taylor and Jim Townsend to assess the events and implications of this major global crisis.
Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program, as well as a PhD student researching Russian defense policy at King’s College London’s War Studies Department. He is a former Marine infantry officer, Alfa Fellow, and visiting fellow at the Centre for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies (CAST), a Russian think tank focused on defense policy.

Flash Release: Samuel Charap Reacts to Continued Russian Aggression

Over the last 24-48 hours, there has been a dizzying number of new developments in the situation surrounding Ukraine and Russia, all of which are deeply concerning. This morning, the Kremlin formally accused the United States of ignoring the package nature of its proposal for security guarantees. This comes amid signs that Russia is creating pretexts for conflict, including spreading false claims of genocide in Donetsk and Luhansk, as well as shelling a Ukrainian village in the Donbas in an apparent attempt to bait Ukrainian forces into responded. Finally, Vladimir Putin is scheduled to soon address the entire Russian Federal Assembly, am ominous sign that a major action could be on the horizon. To make sense of this, Samuel Charap joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss these recent, concerning developments.
Samuel Charap is a senior political scientist at the RAND Corporation, where he focuses on the foreign policies of Russia and the former Soviet states, as well as on European and Eurasian regional security. He has written widely on Ukraine, including his 2017 book titled Everyone Loses: The Ukraine Crisis and the Ruinous Contest for Post-Soviet Eurasia.

Virtual Fireside Chat with Estonian Foreign Minister, Eva-Maria Liimets

Over the past week, the situation in Ukraine has seemed to have approached a critical juncture. U.S. intelligence has warned of an imminent Russian invasion that could begin any day now; yet at the same time, Moscow has insisted that it does not seek a military conflict and declared its continued openness to a diplomatic solution. Given Estonia’s status as a crucial NATO ally during this conflict, Foreign Minister Eva-Maria Liimets joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the current conflict.
Eva-Maria Liimets is the current Foreign Minister of Estonia. She previously served as the Estonian Ambassador to the Czech Republic as well as in numerous other posts throughout her long career as a foreign service professional.

Flash Release: Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds React to Threat of a Russian Invasion of Ukraine

Last Friday, the U.S. intelligence community revealed that it has reason to believe that Russian military action against Ukraine is imminent, with an invasion possibly occurring as soon as this week. Over the past few days, the Biden administration has begun evacuating the U.S. embassy in Kiev, instructed American citizens to leave Ukraine immediately, and reiterated its intention to forge a massive transatlantic response to any violation of Ukraine’s territorial integrity. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development.
Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.
Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

Flash Release: Alex Gabuev and Dave Shullman React to Russia-China Meeting

As the 2022 winter Olympics kicked off last Friday in Beijing, a high-profile meeting took place on the sidelines between Russian President Vladimir Putin and Chinese leader Xi Jinping. Following their meeting, Putin and Xi released a joint statement emphasizing their shared grievances with respect to the U.S.-led world order, condemning NATO enlargement as well as alleged attempts by outside forces to interfere in their internal affairs. Despite this show of solidarity, however, tensions remain in the relationship between Moscow and Beijing. Alexander Gabuev and David Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to help us make sense of this development.
Alexander Gabuev is a senior fellow and the Chair of the Russia in the Asia-Pacific Program at the Carnegie Moscow Center. His research is focused on Russia’s policy toward East and Southeast Asia, political and ideological trends in China, and China’s relations with its neighbors.
David Shullman is Senior Director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council’s work on China. David’s research focuses on China’s foreign policy and grand strategy, U.S.-China relations, China-Russia relations, and the implications of China’s rise for global order and the future of democracy.

Flash Release: Christoph Heusgen Reacts to Evolving Ukraine Crisis

Vladimir Putin recently spoke about Ukraine for the first time since December—a speech in which he conveyed mixed messages about his intentions. On the one hand, he noted that he hoped to find a solution to the crisis, noting the extensive diplomacy that has been taking place. On the other hand, he emphasized that Russia’s security concerns have not been seriously addressed by the United States and Europe, underscoring the difficulty of coming to an agreement. Meanwhile, facts on the ground continue to suggest that conflict remains more likely than not, as Russian forces continue to increase—including, more units, logistics, and enablers such as blood supplies. Germany’s former UN Ambassador, Christoph Heusgen, joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the rapidly evolving situation.
Christoph Heusgen is the former Ambassador of Germany to the United Nations, a role which he held from 2017 to 2021. He previously served as a top security and foreign affairs advisor to former Chancellor Angela Merkel, and later this year he will take over as Chairman of the Munich Security Conference.

Flash Release: Ben Hodges Reacts to U.S.-NATO Response

The United States and its NATO allies have begun pursuing other courses of action to the Russia-Ukraine crisis besides diplomacy, including decisions to put military forces on standby and to send ships and fighter jets to reinforce Eastern Europe. Amid this flurry of activity, there has been a lack of clarity about the intentions behind these moves, lending support to the false Kremlin narrative that NATO forces are converging on Russia and pose a threat to the country’s security interests. Ben Hodges joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what the U.S.-NATO response to Ukraine really means, along with discussing the potential trajectory of future events.
Lieutenant General (ret.)Ben Hodges holds the Pershing Chair in Strategic Studies at the Center for European Policy Analysis. He previously served in the U.S. Army for 38 years, completing his last assignment as commander of U.S. Army Europe from 2014-2017 in Wiesbaden, Germany.