Brussels Sprouts

Evolving Dynamics Within The Bloc, with Pierre Morcos and Jeremy Shapiro

As the war between Russia and Ukraine drags on with little progress toward a resolution, fractures are beginning to appear in the European response. While the European Union successfully came together to take swift and decisive action during the early stages of the conflict, unity has been harder to come by in recent weeks, with differing perceptions and attitudes leading to more frequent disagreements among member states. There has been particularly harsh criticism directed against Germany and France, which some have accused of taking an overly conciliatory approach toward Russia, pointing to evidence such as German hesitation to deliver weapons to Ukraine and French statements calling for the West not to “humiliate” Russia. As Berlin and Paris receive increasing pushback from other member states who advocate for a bolder policy of unreserved support for Ukraine, the prospects for continued unity appear much less certain going forward. Pierre Morcos and Jeremy Shapiro join Jim Townsend and Nick Lokker to make sense of these differing European perspectives on the Russia-Ukraine war.
Pierre Morcos is a visiting fellow in the Europe, Russia, and Eurasia Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies as well as a career diplomat with the French Foreign Service.
Jeremy Shapiro is the research director of the European Council on Foreign Relations, where he focuses on U.S. foreign policy and transatlantic relations.

Unpacking the Transatlantic Technology Council, with Fran Burwell and Tyson Barker

On May 15 and 16, the United States and European Union hosted the second Trade and Technology Council Meeting in Paris-Saclay, France. Since the inaugural TTC meeting, the TTC has emerged as an important venue for transatlantic coordination on export controls directed against Russia, providing a window for further transatlantic cooperation on technology policy. Capitalizing on this momentum, the joint statement from this meeting highlights shared initiatives the working groups have been advancing in the past months and plan to work on moving forward. Tyson Barker and Fran Burwell join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Carisa Nietsche to discuss takeaways from the TTC meeting as well as opportunities for transatlantic cooperation in technology policy.
Tyson Barker is the head of the Technology and Global Affairs at the German Council on Foreign Relations, or DGAP. He previously worked at Aspen Germany where, as deputy executive director and fellow, he was responsible for the institute’s digital and transatlantic programs.
Frances G. Burwell is a distinguished fellow at the Atlantic Council and a senior director at McLarty Associates. Her work focuses on the European Union and U.S.–EU relations as well as a range of transatlantic economic, political, and defense issues.

New Phase of War, with Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds

More than two months after Russia’s initial invasion of Ukraine, the war has now entered a second phase, with the two sides facing off in Ukraine’s eastern Donbas region. Looking forward, it remains unclear how the conflict will evolve as well as how it could eventually come to an end, given the numerous difficulties that stand in the way of achieving any sort of negotiated settlement. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend discuss where the war now stands and what the future may hold for Ukraine, Russia, and the broader international community.
Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.
Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

Macron vs. Le Pen Redux, with Célia Belin and Ben Haddad

What can we expect from the final round of the French presidential election? The possibility of a Le Pen presidency poses major concerns for the future of the European Union and the transatlantic alliance, given her expressed desire to take actions such as leaving NATO’s integrated military command, seeking rapprochement with Russia, and enshrining the supremacy of French legislation over EU law. Another term for Macron, by contrast, would likely see a continuation of his strong pro-European and internationalist vision for France. Célia Belin and Ben Haddad join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss this high-stakes political event, as well as what might unfold and what that might mean for France and the international community.
Célia Belin is a visiting fellow in the Center on the United States and Europe at the Brookings Institution. Her areas of expertise include transatlantic relations, U.S. foreign policy toward Europe, and French politics and foreign policy.
Benjamin Haddad is the senior director of the Europe Center at the Atlantic Council. He is an expert in European politics and transatlantic relations, and his work has notably advocated for transatlantic unity in the face of Russian aggression, greater European responsibility, and investment on strategic matters.

Inching Closer Toward NATO with Mika Aaltola and Anna Wieslander

Will Finland and Sweden join NATO? Since Russia launched its unprovoked war of aggression against Ukraine in late February, European political and security dynamics have changed in profound ways. For Finland and Sweden, the invasion has ignited a new round of debate around the question of NATO membership, causing both countries to reexamine their longstanding policy of remaining outside the transatlantic military alliance. Despite this movement, no political decision has yet been made in either country, and obstacles may remain in the way of membership. Nevertheless, it appears that a seismic shift in foreign and security policy could be on the horizon for both countries. Anna Wieslander and Mika Aaltola join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss what we might expect to see going forward.
Anna Wieslander serves as director for Northern Europe at the Atlantic Council. In addition to her role at the Atlantic Council, she chairs the Institute for Security and Development Policy in Stockholm and serves as secretary general of the Swedish Defense Association.
Mika Aaltola is the Director of the Finnish Institute of International Affairs. He is also a tenured professor of International Relations and European Union Affairs at Tallinn University in Estonia and holds the rank of docent at Tampere University.

Orbán’s Grip On Power, with Dan Kelemen

What does Viktor Orbán’s win in Hungary mean for the future of Europe? On April 3rd, voters in Hungary went to the polls for national parliamentary elections. Despite efforts by the opposition to unite around a single candidate, Viktor Orbán easily managed to win a fourth consecutive term as Prime Minister, as his right-wing Fidesz party retained the two-thirds super majority that has allowed it to drastically reshape Hungarian politics and society over the past twelve years. The European Union and the transatlantic alliance are certain to face major challenges from Orbán’s continued leadership of Hungary, including his consistent pro-Putin stance amidst the war in Ukraine, his ongoing efforts to undermine the rule of law, and his hardline stance on critical issues such as migration. Dan Kelemen joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss this and more.
Dan Kelemen is Professor of Political Science and Law and Jean Monnet Chair in European Union Politics at Rutgers University. He is the author or editor of six books, including The Transformation of Law and Regulation in the European Union, which won the Best Book award from the European Union Studies Association in 2013.

China’s Role Within the War, with Jude Blanchette and Dave Shullman

What role will China choose to play within the Russia-Ukrainian war? Beijing has notably refused to condemn Moscow for its military aggression, instead putting the blame on the West for sparking the crisis. Moreover, there are concerns that China may come to Russia’s aid by providing military assistance or helping it to evade sanctions, though it remains unclear whether China will ultimately act so blatantly in Russia’s favor. In any case, it is certain that the evolving relationship between Russia and China will be a key factor in both the current crisis and the emerging new world order more broadly. Jude Blanchette and Dave Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss all of this and more.
Jude Blanchette holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he was engagement director at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing, where he researched China’s political environment with a focus on the workings of the Communist Party of China and its impact on foreign companies and investors.
Dave Shullman is Senior Director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council’s work on China. David’s research focuses on China’s foreign policy and grand strategy, U.S.-China relations, China-Russia relations, and the implications of China’s rise for global order and the future of democracy.

War in Ukraine: One Month in with Carl Bildt

With the war in Ukraine now entering its second month, we are seeing few day-to-day changes on the battlefield. Russia’s focus appears to be primarily on the south and the east of the country, as it looks less and less likely that it will be able to muster sufficient forces to take Kyiv. Meanwhile, there has been limited progress in negotiations—while President Zelenskyy has said he is amenable to neutrality for Ukraine, there nonetheless remains a deep political divide when it comes to territorial integrity. Taken together, it seems that we are likely to see a long, drawn-out conflict with no real end in sight. Carl Bildt joins Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend on the latest episode of Brussels Sprouts to discuss all of this and more.
Carl Bildt is the co-chair of the European Council on Foreign Relations. He previously served as both Prime Minister and Foreign Minister of Sweden. Under his leadership, the government initiated major liberal economic reforms and negotiated Sweden’s accession to the EU.

Flash Release: Russia-Ukraine Escalations & Off-ramps with Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds

As the war in Ukraine continues into its fourth week, the picture on the ground has largely remained the same in recent days, with the Russian military making only minimal progress toward its objectives. Meanwhile, negotiations are continuing but look highly unlikely to produce tangible results in the next couple of weeks—Putin knows that the conflict will eventually be settled at the negotiating table, and Russia is therefore likely to increase the brutality of its tactics in the short-term with the aim of compelling Zelensky into concessions. Finally, the risk of an expanded conflict remains, demonstrated by Moscow’s recent attack on a training facility near the Polish border as well as its warnings that Western arms convoys could be considered “legitimate targets” for attack. Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to examine the continuing war and potential trajectories.
Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.
Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

War in Ukraine: The World Weighs In

One week after Russia launched its invasion into Ukraine—an invasion that President Biden condemned as "premeditated and unprovoked" in his State of the Union address—Europe has become engulfed in its biggest war in decades. While Russia has expanded its assault on several key Ukrainian cities, a firm resistance from Ukrainian forces and civilians continues and the list of countries vowing immediate military aid to Ukraine continues to grow. On March 4, the Center for a New American Security hosted a panel featuring Andrea Kendall-Taylor, Richard Fontaine, Jeffrey Edmonds, and Michael Kofman to examine the unfolding crisis.
Jeffrey Edmonds is an expert on U.S. national security, especially as it relates to Russia. He works full time for CNA’s Russia Studies Program. Most recently, Jeff served as the Director for Russia on the National Security Council and acting Senior Director for Russia during the 2017 presidential transition. Prior to the NSC, Jeff served as a senior military analyst with the Central Intelligence Agency, covering Eurasian militaries.
Michael Kofman serves as a Senior Research Scientist at the Center for Naval Analyses’ Russia Studies Program, and a Fellow at the Kennan Institute, Woodrow Wilson International Center in Washington, D.C. His research focuses on the Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in the Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.