Brussels Sprouts

What Xi’s Third Term Means for Europe, with Bonnie Glaser and Dave Shullman

With the conclusion of the Chinese Communist Party’s 20th National Party Congress last week, Xi Jinping has now secured a precedent-breaking third term as general secretary. The Congress was also notable for Xi’s moves to replace the Politburo Standing Committee with a slate of his most committed loyalists, cementing his authoritarian grasp on power. Against the backdrop of these events, E.U. leaders met last week in Brussels to discuss their approach to Beijing, raising concerns over Europe’s continued dependence on China for technology and raw materials. How has the war in Ukraine impacted European attitudes and policies toward China? Will German Chancellor Olaf Scholz’s planned visit to the PRC this week pose a risk to future European cohesion on China? Bonnie Glaser and Dave Shullman join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to unpack the party congress and what a third term for Xi means for Europe.
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Bonnie Glaser is director of the Asia Program at the German Marshall Fund of the United States. She was previously senior adviser for Asia and the director of the China Power Project at the Center for Strategic and International Studies, while also serving as a nonresident fellow with the Lowy Institute in Sydney, Australia, and a senior associate with the Pacific Forum.
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Dave Shullman is senior director of the Global China Hub at the Atlantic Council, where he leads the council’s work on China. He has served as one of the US Government’s top experts on East Asia, most recently as Deputy National Intelligence Officer for East Asia on the National Intelligence Council, where he led the IC’s strategic analysis on East Asia.

War in Ukraine: Entering an Increasingly Dangerous Phase, with Amb. Bill Taylor and Amb. John Tefft

As the war in Ukraine continues into its tenth month, it appears to have entered its most dangerous phase yet. During the past week, Russia’s attacks on Ukrainian civilians have intensified, in apparent retaliation for last weekend’s destruction of the Kerch Strait Bridge. Meanwhile, Vladimir Putin’s threats to use nuclear weapons following the annexation of four Ukrainian regions in the east and south have raised alarms across the world, even causing U.S. President Joe Biden to make warnings about the risks of “nuclear Armageddon.” Finally, the Ukrainian counteroffensive continues to make significant progress in reclaiming occupied territory, though it remains unclear to what extent Russia’s partial military mobilization may be able to turn back the tide. Ambassadors Bill Taylor and John Tefft join Andrea Kendall-Taylor to discuss the most recent developments in this increasingly dangerous phase of the war, and how Putin might maneuver going forward.
Bill Taylor is the Vice President for Russia and Eurasia at the United States Institute of Peace. He served as U.S. Ambassador to Ukraine from 2006 to 2009.
John Tefft is a retired U.S. diplomat with more than 45 years of experience in the foreign service. He has previously served as U.S. Ambassador to Russia, Ukraine, Georgia, and Lithuania.

Crafting Transatlantic Responses to BRI

Nine years after the launch of the Belt and Road Initiative, China’s flagship global infrastructure investment program is at a critical juncture. While many countries were initially eager to sign up for the initiative, the BRI has recently lost some of its luster in the face of mounting obstacles including delays, corruption, and heavy debt burdens associated with its projects. Over the past year, CNAS researchers have been thinking through how the BRI might develop in the two key regions of Europe and the Indo-Pacific, forecasting different scenarios for its evolution along with their respective consequences. This research recently culminated in the launch of a report entitled “Competitive Connectivity: Crafting Transatlantic Responses to the Belt and Road Initiative,” which outlines how the United States and Europe can work together to compete against the BRI. The authors of the report join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss how the BRI stands up nearly a decade after its launch, and how Europe and the U.S. might push against it going forward.
Lisa Curtis is a Senior Fellow and Director of the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS.
Jake Stokes is a Fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS.
Josh Fitt is an Associate Fellow with the Indo-Pacific Security Program at CNAS.
Carisa Nietsche is an Associate Fellow with the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS.
Nicholas Lokker is a Research Assistant with the Transatlantic Security Program at CNAS.

The Italian Elections, with Nathalie Tocci and Cecilia Sottilotta

This past weekend, voters in Italy went to the polls for national parliamentary elections. As expected, the elections resulted in a victory for the alliance led by Giorgia Meloni’s far-right Brothers of Italy party, which received enough votes to govern without support from the center-left. How significant of a change does this result represent for Italy, and how worried should we be about its implications for Europe and the transatlantic community? Nathalie Tocci and Cecilia Sottilotta
join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to move beyond the headlines and assess what Meloni’s victory means for Italian and European politics.
Nathalie Tocci is Director of the Istituto Affari Internazionali and an Honorary Professor at the University of Tübingen. She was previously Special Advisor to EU High Representatives Federica Mogherini and Josep Borrell, during which she wrote the European Union’s Global Strategy and worked on its implementation.
Cecilia Sottilotta is an Assistant Professor at the American University of Rome. She is a leading expert on political risk analysis and is a frequent media commentator on Italian and European affairs.

New Phase of War: Ukrainian Offensive and Russian Mobilization, with Mick Ryan and Rob Lee

How have recent Ukrainian counteroffensives changed the trajectory of the war? Will Putin’s announcement of Russian mobilization increase the risk of potential escalation? After a highly successful Ukrainian counteroffensive in the North, Putin has now sought to turn the tables with two important developments. First, Kremlin proxies in four Ukrainian regions have announced plans for sham referenda on annexation to Russia. Additionally, Putin has announced a “partial” mobilization in which he plans to bring 300,000 reservists into Ukraine. Mick Ryan and Robert Lee join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the most recent developments shaping the war in both Ukraine and Russia.
Mick Ryan is an Adjunct Fellow with the Australia Chair at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. He is also a retired major general in the Australian army as well as the author of War Transformed: The Future of 21st Century Great Power Competition and Conflict.
Rob Lee is a Senior Fellow in the Foreign Policy Research Institute’s Eurasia Program and a former Marine infantry officer. He is currently completing his PhD on Russian defense policy at King’s College London’s War Studies Department.

Looking Toward the Balkans, with Damir Marusic and Majda Ruge

What do the war in Ukraine and prospects of E.U. enlargement mean for the Balkans? Damir Marusic and Majda Ruge join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Nick Lokker to discuss how the shifting dynamics across the continent could impact the region’s politics.
Damir Marusic is a resident senior fellow with the Atlantic Council’s Europe Center. He works principally on the Council’s Balkans Forward Initiative, an effort working to foster a democratic, secure, and prosperous Western Balkans firmly integrated into the transatlantic community.
Majda Ruge is a senior policy fellow with the Wider Europe program at the European Council on Foreign Relations, based in Berlin. Before joining ECFR, she spent three years as a fellow at the Foreign Policy Institute/SAIS at Johns Hopkins University.

Germany’s Shifting International Role, with Jana Puglierin and Sam Denney

During recent weeks and months, German Chancellor Olaf Scholz has repeatedly been in the spotlight, drawing both praise and criticism from observers in Germany and abroad. On the one hand, he has received positive attention for his efforts to promote an ambitious agenda that would transform both Germany and the European Union, attempting to meet the pivotal current moment sparked by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. On the other hand, Scholz has encountered significant challenges in executing on this political agenda, facing a worsening energy crisis, a fractious coalition government, and a series of personal scandals. Jana Puglierin and Sam Denney join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss Scholz’s recent speech in Prague, and the shifting dynamics within the European Union that could impact the future of the war in Ukraine.
Jana Puglierin is the head of the Berlin office and a Senior Policy Fellow at the European Council on Foreign Relations. Her work focuses on German and European foreign, security, and defense policy, as well as Germany’s role in Europe and transatlantic relations.
Sam Denney is a German Chancellor Fellow of the Alexander von Humboldt Stiftung. He specializes in U.S. foreign policy, transatlantic relations, German domestic and foreign policy, and threats to democracy in Europe.

A Looming Crisis in the Indo-Pacific, with Jude Blanchette and Zack Cooper

How does the crisis provoked by Nancy Pelosi’s recent trip to Taiwan illustrate the broader state of U.S.-China relations?Jude Blanchette and Zack Cooper join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the likely trajectory of the crisis and its broader implications for the transatlantic community.
Jude Blanchette holds the Freeman Chair in China Studies at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Previously, he was engagement director at The Conference Board’s China Center for Economics and Business in Beijing, where he researched China’s political environment with a focus on the workings of the Communist Party of China and its impact on foreign companies and investors.
Zack Cooper is a senior fellow at the American Enterprise Institute, where he studies U.S. strategy in Asia, including alliance dynamics and U.S.-China competition. He also teaches at Princeton University, co-directs the Alliance for Securing Democracy, and cohosts the “Net Assessment” podcast.

The Latest Phase of the War in Ukraine, with Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds

Has the war in Ukraine reached a critical turning point? Mike Kofman and Jeff Edmonds join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the evolution of the military situation and what we might expect from a forthcoming Ukrainian counteroffensive.
Mike Kofman is the Research Program Director in the Russia Studies Program at CNA as well as an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on Russia and the former Soviet Union, specializing in Russian armed forces, military thought, capabilities, and strategy.
Jeff Edmonds is a Research Scientist with CNA’s Russia Studies Program and an Adjunct Senior Fellow at CNAS. His research focuses on the Russian military, foreign policy, Russian threat perceptions, and Russian information and cyber operations.

Political Churn in Europe, with Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook and Max Bergmann

What do the recent upheavals in European politics mean for the future of transatlantic cooperation? Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook and Max Bergmann join Andrea Kendall-Taylor and Jim Townsend to discuss the path ahead for Europe.
Cathryn Clüver Ashbrook serves as executive vice president at the Bertelsmann Foundation. Her prior positions include director and CEO of the German Council on Foreign Relations as well as executive director of the Future of Diplomacy Project at the Harvard Kennedy School.
Max Bergmann is the director of the Europe Program at the Center for Strategic and International Studies. Prior to joining CSIS, he was a senior fellow at the Center for American Progress, where he focused on Europe, Russia, and U.S. security cooperation.